Working Papers

Buying Quiescence: The Influence of Resource Reliance on Citizens’ Demand for Democracy

The rentier state theory suggests that a nation’s reliance on natural resource wealth leads to political quiescence among its citizens, attributed to low taxation and increased public spending. However, critics argue that this reliance does not necessarily result in political quietude. Despite these contrasting views, few studies have explored the relationship between resource reliance and pro-democratic demands at the country level. This study, using the V-Dem pro-democratic mass mobilization data from 170 countries between 1971 and 2016, makes a significant and unexpected finding. It reveals that reliance on resource wealth is linked to higher levels of mass mobilization for democracy in the global data, in autocratic countries, and in specific regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. These findings contradict conventional wisdom that reliance on resource wealth dampens citizens’ demand for democracy.

Out for review

Public Resources and Accountability: Experimental Evidence _{with Mariana Alvarado, Aksel Sundström, and Sverker Jagers}

This study examines how perceived ownership of government budgets affects political engagement in Peru, particularly in districts that benefit from mining fees. Using a randomized survey experiment with 1,950 respondents, the study focuses on two main areas: the impact of revenue ownership on accountability demands, and how different revenue sources are linked to distinct forms of accountability. The findings indicate that while it is challenging to manipulate perceived ownership over mining fees in real-world contexts, increasing feelings of ownership over taxes can increase citizens’ interest in monitoring budgets. Additionally, the findings reveal that respondents who view the district budget as being derived from taxes are more inclined toward particularistic forms of accountability. This study adds to our understanding of the conditions under which different revenue sources alter the demand for accountability.

Working draft available on request.

Combating the Curse: Anticorruption Pledges, Public Purse, and Political Participation

This study explores the potential of anticorruption initiatives to stimulate democratic engagement in countries that rely more on oil revenues than taxes, with a specific focus on Bayelsa State, Nigeria. It argues that these initiatives can spark public interest in democratic engagement related to public budgeting and have the power to shift citizen preferences towards more inclusive demands. By conducting a survey experiment with 2,400 respondents across 50 communities, the research assesses the impact of anticorruption tied to revenue sources—oil, taxes and generic funds—on political attitudes toward district budget. The findings indicate that linking anticorruption policies to government revenues can increase citizen engagement in participatory budgeting, budget monitoring and electoral participation. The study finds no evidence that citizens perceiving the budget as oil- or tax-derived prefer clientelistic demands over programmatic ones, even when presented with anticorruption initiatives. The findings highlight the need for anticorruption agencies and NGOs to link these initiatives to specific government revenues to generate interest in good governance at the grassroots level.

Currently under review, draft available on request.